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Premium News and Analysis

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Modeling Firms

PCS Moore Tornado Loss Will Wait Weather

Catastrophe modelers are also working on their loss numbers.
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Modelers, Industry Going to Bat for Massachusetts Cat Pool

The Bay State plan argues hurricane models will tell the tale.
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Australia’s Third 2013 Catastrophe Tests Insurers, Flood Models

Australia is nearing $4 billion in flood losses in less than three years.
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Sandy Politics Trumps Reinsurance Catastrophe Models

A Willis Re report says cat models can’t measure political will following a disaster. Read More...
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Swiss Re, AIR Join Chorus of Sandy “Uncertainty”

The reinsurer is the latest industry player to hedge their Sandy loss bets. Read More...
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CCRIF Project to Focus on Caribbean Quake Hotspots

The insurance facility is trying to beef up seismic monitoring in the region.
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Reinsurers, Insurers Face “Highly Uncertain” Sandy Loss Estimates: Fitch

Losses estimates from Hurricane Sandy range from $10 billion to $40 billion. Read More...
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Storm Surge Becomes Sandy’s Loss Wildcard

The storm’s unique storm surge profile could push losses into the record books.
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Hurricane Sandy U.S. Insured Losses Hinge On Storm’s Size, Slowness

When it comes to Hurricane Sandy, size matters. Read More...
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Rafael to Reach Hurricane Status, Remain Flood Threat: AIR

The ninth named storm of the 2012 season will steer clear of the U.S. coastline. Read More...
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Quake Hazard Map “Failure” Leading to Poor Modeling: Study

Hazard maps may be the least reliable way to measure earthquake risk, one study argues.
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Catastrophe Modelers Historic Loss Estimates Flawed: Clark

Under Clark’s assumptions, 13 historic hurricanes would cause over $10 billion in losses today. Read More...
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China Faces Serious Flooding Threat: AIR, RMS

China floods may become a bigger threat if rains continue.
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Catastrophe Model “Common Flaws,” “Blind Spots” Questioned in IAIS Report

Model interdependence within the industry is a cause of for concern. Read More...
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Japan Continues to Bear the Brunt of Catastrophe Price Spike: Marsh

U.S. prices have risen between 10 percent and 20 percent. Read More...
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India Cyclone Model Released by AIR

The new model will focus on the “unique” characteristics of Indian cyclones. Read More...
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U.S. Dominates First Half 2012 Catastrophe Losses

A vast majority of the $12 billion in insured losses are tied to severe storms in the U.S.
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Earthquake Triggered Mexico Catastrophe Bond, Until It Didn’t

A USGS revision saved investors a $140 million payout. Read More...
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AIR Continues Catastrophe Bond Supremacy

Other modeling firms have yet to bounce back in the cat bond sector. Read More...
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China June Disaster Costs Hit $350 Billion While U.S. Tallies Wildfire Losses: Aon

June was a significant natural disaster period the China and the U.S.
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Industry Triggers Make Catastrophe Bond Headway

PCS argues that indemnity triggers may not dominate remaining 2012 issuance. Read More...
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PERILS Ups Windstorm Andrea Losses to 335 Million Euros

Andrea was one of the most destructive of six storms that hit Europe earlier in the year.
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NFIP Privatization Faces Flood of Modeling, Mapping, Financial Hurdles

Despite promises of a “study,” the private market is far from prepared to cover U.S. flood. Read More...
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Debby Changes From Wind to Water Hazard: Modelers

Losses are more likely in the government-backed flood program than private wind policies. Read More...
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Australian Quake Unlikely to Reach Major Losses

The trembler that struck Tuesday may spare the country significant losses. Read More...
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Western Wildfires Threaten U.S. Losses

Wildfires in Colorado and New Mexico have already damaged 118 structures.
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Italy Quake, China Flood And U.S. Storms Top May Losses: Aon

Insured losses remain uncertain for the Italian quake. Read More...
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Insurance-Linked Securities Flourish as Reinsurance “Light”

Issuers and investors ease into the notion of alternative’s role.
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Florida, Texas and North Carolina Remain Highest Hurricane Risk

But Colorado State researchers say individual state’s risk of hurricane remains below longer-term averages. Read More...
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Global Earthquake Model Backs Asia-Pacific Hazard Scheme

GEM says it’s “fully supportive” of the regional push.
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EQECAT Ups Italian Quake Loss Estimate by 600%

The catastrophe modeler points to major aftershocks. Read More...
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60,000 at Most Risk in New Italian Quake

The new quake comes a week after $100 million estimated insured loss in the same region.
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Agriculture, Commercial Losses Driving Italian Quake Claims

Parmesan production could be the center of the loss from Sunday’s earthquake.
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No Euro Windstorm “Silver Bullet” for Insurers: PERILS

The NOA Index is helpful but of limited use. Read More...
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Location, Limited Take-Up Will Curb Italian Quake Losses: AIR

Limited insurance means limited losses following Sunday’s earthquake in Italy.
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Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa Focus of Tornado Losses: Modelers

Over 100 tornados were formed over the April 14 weekend. Read More...
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U.S. Cat Exposed Areas See Double-Digit Q1 Rate Increases: Marsh

Overall, Marsh sees prices “firming.” Read More...
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Insured Losses Top $1B From U.S. Storms, Tornados: Aon Benfield

The U.S. took the insured loss lead in March. Read More...
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890 Million Urban Dwellers at Risk of Natural Disaster: UN

The increasing urban population is concentrating risk.
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Tornado Outbreak Possibly Biggest March Activity in 60 Years: RMS

And the U.S. tornado season is just getting started. Read More...
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RMS Looks Beyond Catastrophe Risk to Trading Risk

The new Miu pricing service is attempting new ground.
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Mississippi Ranks Last in Hurricane Building Code Adoption

A new report places Mississippi at the bottom, while praising Florida’s efforts.
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Storm Clusters Will Bring Difficult Winter for Europe: RMS

Storm clusters are pounding the Continent. Read More...
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PERILS Takes on Flooding

The industry backed aggregator is moving beyond windstorm. Read More...
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Risk Transfer, Insurers Failing in Climate Change: UN

In some instances, private market measures are adding to disaster risk. Read More...
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Building Codes Failed Turkey: AIR

Building codes have been poorly adopted despite the region’s quake prone nature.

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Terrorism Modeling Possible Using Social Networks: RMS

RMS estimates there are four large scale planned attacks against the U.S. per year. Read More...
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Recurvature Key to Katia

Like many tropical storm systems, U.S. landfall depends on recurvature, says RMS’ Robert Muir Wood. Read More...
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EQECAT Estimates Nanmadol Taiwan Losses

Insured losses could reach $600 million. Read More...
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Nanmadol Weakening Towards China, Spares Taiwan: AIR

The storm is losing power as it heads towards one of China’s largest cities. Read More...
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Wind vs. Water vs. Trees

Irene is not Katrina, not even close. Read More...
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Typhoon Nanmadol Cuts Through Philippines, Eyes Taiwan

Nanmadol will traverse Taiwan on Sunday.
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Bret to Steer Clear of U.S., Ma-On to Strike Japan: AIR

Bahamas should escape any major damage. Read More...
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Floods Dominate June Catastrophes; Will Continue in U.S.

Flooding in China and the U.S. cause the most damage in June, according to AON Benfield. Read More...
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Remodeling Catastrophe Bonds

AIR Worldwide’s Pascal Karsenti discusses the push among catastrophe bond investors to “remodel.” Read More...
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2011 Tornado Season Rare, but Not Unheard Of

Of more concern is the damage the upcoming hurricane season could cause to a recovering Midwest. Read More...
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Missouri River Flooding Intensifies: AIR

Two nuclear power plants could be threatened by the flooding. Read More...
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Coastal Storm Model Would Settle Wind vs. Water Debate

A proposed government catastrophe model would also allocate losses for some claims. Read More...
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AIR Estimates Tornado Insured Losses Could Reach $7 Billion

The firm said that the outbreak was the result of unusual circumstances aligning to create massive storms. Read More...
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Tornado Frequency Continues to Vex Modelers, Insurers

The Joplin, Missouri storm may be another major severe loss for insurers. Read More...
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Insured Losses From April Tornados Between $3.7B and $5.5B: AIR

The firm argues the thunderstorm losses prove the events ‘can be truly catastrophic.’ Read More...
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Guy Carpenter Expands Flood Model to Indonesia

The new model will focus on the Jakarta region. Read More...
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Cat Bonds in Second Quarter Slow Down: Report

A report issued Wednesday by Aon/Benfield says that second quarter issuance may disappoint. Read More...
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Earthquake Losses, Deaths ‘Soar’ While Seismic Activity Remains Static: Report

Swiss Re says that insurers should prepare for increased losses. Read More...
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Modelers Face Japanese Quake Challenges

The scope of the disaster is hindering the ability of catastrophe modeling firms to measure potential losses for insurers and catastrophe bond investors. Read More...
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Chile Insurers Hit by ‘Model Miss’ Aftershock

A new report argues that catastrophe modeling firms significantly overestimated losses from last year’s Maulé earthquake. Read More...
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Short-Term Models Continue to Disappoint: Clark

Modeling firms continue to ignore the "Frequency Paradox," Clark argues. Read More...
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PERILS Issues New Euro Storm Loss Estimates

New loss estimates, going back to 1999, are not part of the PERILS' database. Read More...
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Chile Offers Harsh Lessons for U.S., Japan Quake: EQECAT

Developed countries remain surprisingly unprepared for a major earthquake, the modeling firm argues.
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Gulf Oil Leads to Liability Clash: RMS

The Gulf of Mexico catastrophe highlights the need for better risk portfolio management, the modeler argues.
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Alex to Become Hurricane Today with a Dolly-Like Path

Alex is targeting a wide swath between central Mexico and Texas and its track and strength mimics a 2008 storm that caused $500 million in insured losses.
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Flooding in Central Europe, China and U.S. Midwest Dominate May Cat Losses

Deepwater Horizon remains the great unknown loss.
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Nationwide to Stop Writing Direct California Quake

The insurer will be hit with surcharge in order to make the switch to CEA. Read More...
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North Pacific Cyclone Season May Be Tame

A total of 28 storms are predicted. Read More...
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Baja Quake Dominated April Nat Cat Losses

The Mexico tremblor caused over $300 million in insured losses. Asia suffered from violent storms and a China quake. Read More...
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RIMS 2010: Solar Flare Can Cause Earth-Bound Disruptions

Electromagnetic storms are a low-frequency but high-impact event. Read More...
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EQECAT Database Change Part of Larger Re-Architecture Plan

The firm is in a two year process of rebuilding its core catastrophe model, including a new schema.
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EQECAT Hires RMS Software Architect

Marian Szefler will join the California-based firm. Read More...
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Study Says Coastal Regions Have Billions at Risk From Storm Surge

Insurers need to understand the mechanics of storm surge to quantify potential losses.

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AIR Offers Systems Update

Both CATRADER and CLASIC/2 will move to version 11.5. Read More...
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Reinsurers Fail to React to Secondary Peril Threat

The industry continues to subsidize losses without charging adequate rates. Read More...
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Madeira Flooding, Mudslides Cause Extensive Damage

The island destination is reeling from a weekend storm. Read More...
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Northeast Storms Await Cat Designation

PCS continues to tally claims from "Snowmageddon." Read More...
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Flat Roof Snow Loads are Primary Concern in East Coast Storm: AIR

Blizzard conditions in the Eastern U.S. could lead to insured losses. Read More...
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Weather Models Key to Haiti Recovery Effort

New models will be used to direct resettlement efforts prior to the critical hurricane season. Read More...
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RMS Calls Criticism “A Fundamental Misunderstanding” of Cat Models

After a report calls short term hurricane models flawed, one firm says the criticism is itself faulty. Read More...
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Clark Says Hurricane Models Overestimated Losses

Near term models are unreliable and need to be reconsidered, the study says. Read More...
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Haiti Quake Payout $8 Million, Limited Insurance and Poor Construction Are Key

Despite possible economic losses in the hundreds of millions, the local cat fund has limited exposure. Modelers point to multiple causes. Read More...
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Despite Few ’09 Mega Cats, Data Shows Loss Trends Rising

Munich Re data shows that severe storm frequency is becoming a larger issue. Read More...
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Aon Report: Biggest Cats Continue to Be Least Insured

Beyond the headline number of insured losses, developing countries suffered greatly in 2009.
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Clark Launches Cat Review Product

The former AIR founder wants to review carriers’ modeling. Read More...
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PERILS Launches Euro Windstorm Product

The insurance industry consortium set up to provide detailed European catastrophe data has come out with its first product offering. Read More...
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Storm Frequency Becomes a Frequent Problem

Munich Re and RMS have rolled out products that target losses from local, but severe, convective storms. Read More...
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Cat Modelers Juggle for Position

The influence of any single catastrophe modeling firm within insurance linked securities only tells a piece of the market’s story. Read More...
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GEM Launches Survey

The open source initiative is looking for feedback on developing a global earthquake risks model.
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Mexico Cat Bond May Portend Similar Structures

Conservative collateral mixed with multiple perils could open the door for other government sponsors.
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Consultant Wants to Double Check Modelers’ Earthquake Math

Recent changes to the California hazard map could mean a big drop for insurer loss estimates, but Clark argues boards and management need to understand the science. Read More...
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Financial Market Meltdown Pulls the Indemnity Trigger

Indemnity cat bonds are out of favor, causing industry index-based products to flourish.
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Exposure Data Initiative Makes Jump into Modeling Firms

AIR will become the first cat modeler to adopt the data standard. ACORD is hopeful that other firms will follow.
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It Ain’t Easy [Quantifying] Being Green

Green building practices will have an impact on rebuilding costs after a loss event, but how much remains in question for insurers.
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State Lawmakers Get Cat Model Update

Government officials move ahead with study over industry objections. Read More...
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New PERILS Program Underscores Exposure Risk

Getting exposure data correct is key to model worries. Read More...
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Klaus Brings European Windstorm, Triggers Back Into Focus

Over €2 billion insured loss is a possibility, but ILS trigger questions will need to wait. Read More...
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