Aon Rolls Out Aggressive Expansion of Risk Modeling

Aon unveiled ambitious plans at its 2025 Investor Day, to scale its proprietary risk modeling capabilities across geographies and industries, positioning its tools as core components of its go-to-market strategy.

The centerpiece of this strategy is Aon’s evolving suite of analytic tools, including its Property Risk Analyzer. Originally developed to help clients assess volatility in commercial property exposure, the tool has since incorporated climate risk projections, severe convective storm patterns, and wildfire dynamics. Now in its fourth or fifth iteration, the model is used globally and continuously updated, according to Aon executives.

“We had a workable and phenomenal model within four months,” said Andy Marcell, Aon’s CEO of Global Solutions. “And we are answering questions for clients and growing our business as a consequence of this engagement. That’s what risk capital does: the right people, right analytics, right data, continuous improvement, and global scale.”

Aon’s approach to model development is embedded in its broader restructuring efforts. Executives repeatedly emphasized during the presentation the integration of its risk capital and human capital businesses as the foundation for delivering what they describe as a next-generation client experience. These units, supported by the Aon Business Services (ABS) platform, are tasked with building and maintaining models that operate across solution lines, moving beyond the siloed development that has traditionally dominated the insurance and consulting industries.

To support this initiative, Aon is investing heavily in internal analytics teams and infrastructure. Its Impact Forecasting platform now houses 135 catastrophe models spanning 90 countries. The company Sid has also prioritized talent acquisition in high-demand sectors like construction, energy, and climate modeling, citing a sharp uptick in parametric and facultative transaction volume as evidence of surging market demand.

The broader context for this push, executives say, is the growing urgency among clients to address complex risks with quantifiable, forward-looking insights. “Weather is no longer something to endure—it’s something to predict and act upon,” said CEO Greg Case during his keynote. “We can’t respond with a linear answer to an interconnected challenge. We need integrated understanding powered by comparable, durable data and models that scale.”

Clients are already using Aon’s analytics platforms to reevaluate risk retention and transfer strategies. A corporate risk executive from Mars Inc. cited the use of Aon’s Property and Casualty Analyzers in a recent review of the company’s global insurance portfolio, noting how predictive insights helped balance internal retention against commercial transfer options.

Beyond property and casualty, Aon is also applying its modeling strategy to workforce and health risks. The Health Risk Analyzer and Workforce Absence Analyzer combine data from medical claims and workers' compensation programs to forecast cost drivers and productivity losses. In the firm’s recent study of GLP-1 medication use, Aon used a dataset of 50 million insured Americans to quantify the broader economic impact of chronic illness management—underscoring its commitment to bringing actuarial-grade modeling into human capital discussions.

“We’ve recognized that working on these solutions and delivering for our clients is not a project. It’s a way that we operate,” Marcell said.

The company has filed multiple patents for its analyzers and client service platforms, aiming to hardwire innovation into its core operating model. Mindy Simon, Aon’s global COO, described ABS as a “dual-mission engine” that supports both client outcomes and operating income growth.

Aon’s leadership added that their modeling push was a response to market pressure. For decades, risk transfer as a share of global GDP has been shrinking, Case said, even as underlying risks have grown. Reversing that trend requires new tools—and a new way of working.

“Clients want better service, and they need better service,” Case said. “We know what to do, and we’re now focused on industrial-strength execution to deliver it.”