Good Morning (Go Knicks!)
What RMN is watching in risk, models and markets...
- The $213B ShakeOut number is a lower bound. A new paper finds the stress conditions for a multi-fault San Andreas–San Jacinto rupture through Cajon Pass are approaching the historic threshold for the first time since 1812. USGS's most-cited public anchor for Southern California EQ risk assumed a single-fault rupture stopping at Cajon Pass — never calibrated for the joint-rupture case the new modeling describes.
- Aon admits traditional insurance can't carry AI infrastructure. CFO Edmund Reese told Morgan Stanley this week that hyperscaler CapEx has outrun reinsurance capacity, and that Aon is the channel pulling alternative capital — specifically PE — into the gap.
- CSU cuts the forecast and rewires the inputs. Colorado State cut its 2026 Atlantic forecast to a below-normal season while it debuted the Ai2 Climate Emulator which rewrite the inputs to every ENSO-linked cat bond trigger and seasonal forecast in the market.
