Good morning, and this is today’s RMN morning brief.
- Markets: KKR Co-CEO Scott Nuttall pushed back directly on Apollo's proposal to list private credit loans on exchange, arguing that liquidity would compress the spread premium underpinning the entire insurance-linked private credit structure.
- Safepoint Holdings filed an amended S-1 on May 26 — coming to market as the Florida conditions that made its reciprocal exchange model profitable are reversing. Citizens has shed more than 546,000 policies in a single year, 20 new carriers have entered the state, and June 2026 reinsurance renewals are expected to post the most pronounced softening since the post-Ian hard market began.
- Risk: Moody's RMS puts US aggregated uninsured flood exposure at $375 billion at a 1-in-100-year return period — rising to more than $1 trillion at 1-in-500-year severity — with a protection gap that private market growth has not narrowed despite a doubling of private policies since 2020.
- Models: The WMO's decadal update gives a 91% probability to at least one year between 2026 and 2030 temporarily exceeding 1.5°C, with an El Niño tendency biased toward 2027–2028: the physical hazard backdrop against which the current reinsurance softening cycle is playing out.
Here is a breakdown of the details...
