The California State Senate has passed SB 429, the Wildfire Safety and Risk Mitigation Program, sending the legislation to Governor Gavin Newsom's desk for signature.
If signed, California would become the first state in the nation to develop its own public wildfire catastrophe model, fundamentally reshaping how wildfire risk is assessed and insurance rates are determined.
The bill, authored by Senator Dave Cortese, would establish a program to fund "the development, demonstration, and deployment of a public wildfire catastrophe model" through university partnerships.
The legislation defines this model as "a computerized process that uses the best available science to simulate potential property damage caused by major wildfires and has readily accessible documentation and programs, including, but not limited to, underlying data and algorithms, for use by public agencies, organizations, and individuals."
Market Access
The legislation represents a direct challenge to the insurance industry's reliance on proprietary and private market catastrophe models that have been a constant source of criticism from consumer groups.
"Insurers have hidden behind opaque, 'black-box' catastrophe models to set rates and coverage," said a statement from Mekedas Belayneh, policy advocate with Public Citizen's Climate Program following the legislation's passage Saturday. "At the same time, insurers have hiked rates and in some cases abandoned regions, citing the risks of disasters and extreme weather driven by climate change."
"By establishing a public wildfire catastrophe model, California is leading the nation in promoting transparency and fairness in insurance pricing and giving regulators and policymakers the tools they need to better protect consumers," she added.
Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, who sponsored the legislation, stated: "Signing these bills will strengthen California's leadership in protecting insurance consumers through the latest fire science and technology."
Others have questioned the need for a public model given the growing number of private market alternatives that address the same issues.
Implementation and Oversight
Upon appropriation, the Department of Insurance would administer the program through competitive grants, establishing "minimum standards, funding schedules, and procedures for awarding grants."
The legislation requires the department to create "a framework and multiyear plan with available data for the development, demonstration, and deployment of a public wildfire catastrophe model" and publish it online.
The bill also mandates that the department "provide recommendations to the Senate Committee on Insurance, Assembly Committee on Insurance, Assembly Committee on Emergency Management, Budget Committees, and the Governor for future budget allocations related to these provisions before September 1, 2026."
This legislation emerges as part of a broader package addressing wildfire resilience and insurance transparency following the devastating January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.
Governor Newsom has until October 13 to act on the measure.
