India Cyclone Model Released by AIR

Boston-based AIR Worldwide has released a new cyclone model for India — including a new industry exposure database — with the hopes of expanding its presence on the sub-continent.

The model covers the Indian Ocean basin and includes more than 35,000 loss-causing storms, both landfalling and bypassing, according to a statement released Monday. The model is currently available in Version 14.0 of the CLASIC/2™ and CATRADER® catastrophe risk management systems, the firm added.

A number of modifications have been made to the model to take into account the unique risks of Indian cyclones, AIR said. For example, since precipitation intensity and flood hazards can increase as a cyclone moves inland (rather than decrease as with other storm types) “the new model calculates total precipitation and then reroutes the rainfall distribution based on soil type, land use/land cover, and slope — all of which determines what fraction of precipitation is absorbed and what fraction accumulates to produce localized flooding.”

AIR said the model has been validated against historical hazard and loss data and has undergone peer review.

“As India’s economy grows and global markets become increasingly interdependent, the insurance industry is turning its attention to the potential for large losses in the region,” said Dr. Praveen Sandri, senior vice president and managing director of AIR’ India operations. “We’re confident that AIR’s model will provide clients with the most complete view of cyclone risk in India and that it will become the industry standard for managing the potential losses caused by these high-impact events.”