The viral “thought experiment” that roiled technology stocks Monday (including pushing IBM shares to their worst plunge in 25 years) contained broad dystopian predictions for the U.S. economy under runaway AI adoption.
But the piece also contained specific and striking broadsides against the life insurance and reinsurance industries, the growing threat of offshore financial regulatory arbitrage and the increasing reliance on private credit tied to PE-backed software deals, warning that household annuity savings may be the hidden fuse in the next financial crisis.
For most traders, the headline risk in the “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” Substack post published by Citrini Research was software. It imagined AI agents compressing enterprise margins, gutting SaaS revenue, and triggering reflexive layoffs that feed a macro downturn.
But its “modeling a scenario” also included a structural warning that the modern life insurance balance sheet, deeply intertwined with offshore reinsurance and private credit, could become the transmission mechanism between AI-driven disruption and household savings.
