The United States needs to develop a national public–private system to advance “promising technologies” capable of addressing the growing economic threat of wildfires, according to a study released last week by RAND Corporation.
The nonprofit, nonpartisan policy research institution, which advises U.S. and allied governments, says wildfires have become a systemic risk to the U.S. economy—but the institutions responsible for managing that risk are struggling to translate emerging technologies into real-world adoption.
The report warns that wildfire losses are “rising faster than the United States’ capacity to prevent, detect, and respond,” even as tools for fuel mapping, early detection, and recovery continue to advance.
RAND argues that the core problem is not a lack of innovation, but a fragmented system that slows the transition from pilot projects to scalable deployment. The wildfire management ecosystem spans federal, state, local, tribal, nonprofit, and private actors, with authority and budgets distributed across jurisdictions, the report explains.
As a result, “promising technologies…move too slowly from pilot to widespread use because the wildfire management system is fragmented, resources are limited and misaligned, and incentives favor suppression over mitigation, preparedness, and recovery.”
That imbalance is central, the report adds. Although wildfire management formally spans prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, “most attention and resources go toward suppression,” even when prevention and mitigation could reduce long-term losses.
Federal suppression spending alone averages nearly $3 billion annually, while funding for innovation—particularly outside suppression—remains fragmented and small-scale.
RAND characterizes the innovation system as “polycentric,” with “multiple centers of authority” and no single actor responsible for coordination. Although a wildfire startup ecosystem of innovators, accelerators, and users exists, the report finds that “few accelerators provide funding, share information, and provide opportunities for pilot testing,” limiting technologies from being developed and adopted at scale.
The report, however, highlights a wildfire sensor initiative as a rare success story.
Following severe fire seasons, federal agencies partnered with private firms to test advanced detection sensors capable of identifying fires “one to five miles away,” with artificial intelligence filtering out false positives. By 2023–2024, beta sensors were detecting ignitions within “30 to 60 minutes,” demonstrating what coordinated funding, shared test beds, and clear user demand can achieve.
To close the gap, the authors recommend creating a government-led “network administrative organization” to act as a neutral backbone for wildfire innovation. The goal would be to “coordinate innovators, accelerators, and users and accelerate the transition of promising technologies from early development to adoption and scale across the full wildfire management cycle.”
The report adds that private-sector demand is already aligned with such an effort.
“Timber companies need early detection to protect their assets,” the report states. “Utilities facing lawsuits for their roles in fire require grid-hardening technologies and sensors and satellite data to detect fires before they grow. Insurance companies want better information about risk and about what mitigation activities work.”
