Research reveals that climate change is increasingly responsible for expanding burned areas across various global regions.
The study, which utilized advanced fire-vegetation models, found significant increases in burned areas due to changing climate patterns, particularly in regions like central Australia, southeastern South America, West Siberia, and western North America.
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, says that the increase in burned area is directly tied to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns influenced by climate change. By comparing factual simulations (with current climate conditions) and counterfactual simulations (with climate data fixed at 1901 levels), the study quantifies the impact of climate change on fire regimes from 2003 to 2019. “Our simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (13.1–18.7%) during this period,” the researchers note, emphasizing the growing influence of climate on wildfire dynamics.
Central Australia was identified as a hotspot for increased burned area, experiencing a rise of 22.4% due to climate change. Similar trends were observed in southeastern South America (28.9%), West Siberia (17.5%), and western North America (14.9%).
“These regions show a statistically significant signal of change that aligns with observed shifts in fire behavior,” the study reports.
A critical aspect of the research is the use of dynamic fire-vegetation models, which provided a detailed analysis of how climate variables influence fire patterns over time. Unlike previous studies that relied primarily on fire danger indices or historical data, this approach allowed the researchers to simulate a world without climate change and compare it to current conditions. “By using a combination of factual and counterfactual simulations, we can better isolate the role of climate change in increasing burned areas, providing a clearer picture of its direct impacts,” the study explains.
The models used in the study are part of the Fire Model Intercomparison
Project (FireMIP), which integrates various datasets to create comprehensive simulations of fire behavior. The research is the culmination of decade of work across the globe.
This modeling approach proved crucial in understanding how factors such as temperature, precipitation, and fuel availability interact to influence fire frequency and size, the authors say.
“Our analysis focuses on the relative anomaly of burned area, allowing us to compare regions regardless of the absolute magnitude of fires, thereby providing a more nuanced understanding of regional fire dynamics under changing climate conditions”, they said.
While the study points to a global trend of increased burned areas driven by climate change, it also notes the complexities introduced by human activities. In some regions, land-use changes and fire management practices have led to a reduction in burned areas, countering the effects of climate change.
For example, while socio-economic factors have contributed to a 19.1% decrease in burned area globally during the same period, the influence of climate change has led to an overall rise in regions where fire suppression and management are less effective.