Good morning.
The Trump Administration is one step closer to its long-term goal of dismantling many federal insurance and risk modeling initiatives—and we’ve broken down how the Republican “Big Beautiful” legislative proposal compares to the pre-election plans outlined in Project 2025.
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Breaking Down the “One Big Beautiful Bill”: What It Means for Insurance and Climate Risk Modeling
U.S. House Republicans last week passed the multi-trillion-dollar “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which enacts many of the insurance market and climate modeling policy goals first outlined in the 2023 Project 2025 document.
In particular, the bill’s treatment of insurance oversight, disaster resilience, and climate science bears a striking resemblance to the pre-election policy proposals of Project 2025. Both call for repealing the Federal Insurance Office (FIO), labeling it as bureaucratic and unnecessary—a move critics warn could undermine federal coordination on catastrophe insurance. Similarly, the bill reduces support for NOAA’s weather and climate modeling efforts and cuts funding for programs at the Departments of Energy and the Interior that support long-term risk assessments, aligning with Project 2025’s skepticism toward federal climate research.
One key difference: while the budget does not propose structural changes to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), Project 2025 suggests a path toward broader privatization—raising questions about the future of federally backed flood insurance.
Taken together, the two plans outline a deregulatory agenda that favors market-driven responses over federal investments in modeling, forecasting, and risk management infrastructure.
Below is a summary of key comparisons, with citations from the proposed legislation:
📊 OBBB Budget Bill vs. Project 2025: Insurance & Risk Policy Comparisons
🔹 Topic: Federal Insurance Office (FIO) Repeal
Budget Proposal:
Proposes eliminating the FIO, citing it as redundant and advocating for state-led insurance regulation.
Project 2025:
Supports repealing FIO, viewing it as a federal overreach into state-regulated insurance markets and a "regulatory nuisance".
Alignment:
✅ Aligned – both call for dismantling FIO and restoring state authority.
Bill Text
Repeals the Federal Insurance Office (FIO), which was created by the Dodd-Frank Act. The FIO is duplicative of state insurance regulators and does not provide meaningful consumer protection.
🔹 Topic: National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
Budget Proposal:
Minority members warn that repealing the FIO could undermine NFIP’s risk-based management.
Project 2025:
Little direct reference to NFIP, but promotes privatization and reduced federal involvement in disaster insurance programs.
Alignment:
☑️ Partially aligned – deregulatory stance implied, though less explicitly stated.
Bill Text (from the minority report)
The elimination of the Federal Insurance Office would severely hinder FEMA’s ability to analyze and support the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which relies on actuarial, risk, and market data. This would weaken risk assessment tools critical to pricing and underwriting flood insurance.
🔹 NOAA Climate and Weather Modeling Cuts
Budget Proposal:
Reduces funding for NOAA’s weather research and forecasting capabilities.
Project 2025:
Calls for defunding or restructuring NOAA’s climate programs, asserting political bias in federal climate science.
Alignment:
✅ Strongly aligned – both advocate cutting NOAA’s role in climate modeling.
Bill Text (from the minority report)
The budget reduces funding for NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, including programs that support climate forecasting, seasonal prediction, and weather modeling infrastructure... These cuts undermine hurricane and storm surge forecasting capabilities.
🔹FEMA Risk Modeling and Disaster Grants
Budget Proposal:
Indicates potential indirect impacts on FEMA’s model-driven disaster mitigation funding.
Project 2025:
Recommends a leaner FEMA focused on disaster response, not predictive modeling or mitigation.
Alignment:
✅ Aligned – Project 2025 deprioritizes modeling in disaster planning.
Bill Text
Shifts FEMA priorities from pre-disaster mitigation to response-focused activities. Proposes reductions in Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grants, which rely heavily on catastrophe risk models to determine funding allocations.
🔹 Department of Energy & Interior Climate Tools
Budget Proposal:
Reduces funding for agencies involved in climate science and predictive risk modeling.
Project 2025:
Proposes eliminating DOE and DOI climate programs that support modeling infrastructure.
Alignment:
✅ Aligned – both target reductions in climate modeling and data programs.
Bill Text
Reduces funding for Department of Energy and Department of the Interior programs supporting climate modeling, resilience analysis, and scientific research. These programs are deemed redundant or misaligned with national energy priorities.
